The documented chain, and the hypothesis this post is about.

Every time I raise irrigation water in this outbreak, the same sentence comes back at me. The water comes from deep wells. There is no Cyclospora in a well six hundred feet down. It is a good answer. It is also, on the government’s own record, an answer to a question nobody asked.

Open FDA’s environmental assessment of the Doctor Mora plant, published in November 2013 after cyclosporiasis sickened hundreds of people in Iowa and Nebraska. The report says all five assessed ranches use well water, and that the wells run roughly 650 to 1,000 feet deep with casing to the water table and cement surface seals. That is the sentence the industry quotes. Two sentences later comes the one it does not.

In 2013 three of the assessed ranches used elevated irrigation water holding ponds. Both lined and un-lined ponds were observed.

And the reason FDA gives is not a food safety reason at all. It is an electricity bill. Some of the wells lacked adequate flow rates for direct irrigation, and the power to run the well pumps was much cheaper at night than during the day. The growers therefore pumped after dark into open ponds and drew from the ponds when they needed to irrigate. At Ranch B the water from two wells was combined in a single elevated reservoir before use, and that reservoir was dosed with copper sulfate to keep the algae down. Nobody treats a sealed pipe for algae. Algae needs sunlight and open air, and if you are managing algae, you are managing an open body of surface water.

That is the whole of the deep-well defense, and it collapses on a definition rather than on a fact. Nobody has to argue that this parasite is swimming around in the Guanajuato aquifer. Water that leaves a six-hundred-foot well and then sits in an unlined pond under the sun is not well water anymore in any sense that matters to a parasitologist. The industry’s own rulebook says so. California’s leafy greens standards make growers categorize every source separately — well, reservoir, canal, municipal — and treat water from open sources such as a canal or reservoir when it is applied overhead in the twenty-one days before harvest. The distinction between a well and a pond is not something I invented for a blog post. It is a line the industry drew itself and then stopped mentioning.

Taylor Farms knew it too, and its own numbers are in the same federal report. In response to the 2013 outbreak the company ran its own assessment across the plant and thirty ranches and collected 793 samples. The categories are itemized: 81 well samples, and 48 from reservoir and storage. Six more reservoir and storage samples under environment. Three from a reservoir listed as no longer active. Ten from run-off and standing water. Eight from drain ditches. Seven from rivers, streams and canals. A company that sends technicians out to sample drain ditches and standing water is not a company that believes its irrigation water never touches the surface of the earth.

FDA did look at the ponds in 2013, and it is worth being precise about what the looking consisted of. The team walked the entire perimeter of each holding pond and found no indication of human or animal intrusion and noted that the ponds were fenced inside a fenced ranch under twenty-four-hour security. That is an intrusion check. It answers whether somebody climbed in. It does not address rain running off surrounding ground into an open pond, it does not address birds, and it does not address what an unlined pond exchanges with the soil water around it. The report’s one sentence about flooding is specific: the team found no indication of flooding or other potential irrigation water contamination at any of the wells. The wells. The ponds are not in that sentence.

So, what does 2026 look like?  So far, silence.

Now the part where I am speculating.

The first half of 2026 was the wettest in Guanajuato in nearly a decade. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional logged 10.9 inches of rain accumulated by mid-year, with June the heaviest month at up to 7.6 inches, a figure the state had not seen since around 2018. The rainy season opened in the middle of May. The state’s own water engineers warned before it started that June would be the wettest month, and warned specifically about standing water, urban flooding and arroyos overflowing their banks. CONAGUA had forecast in April that El Niño would push 2026 past 2025, which was already one of the wettest years of the decade.

Now put that beside the illness curve. Back the six-week reporting lag off the late-June surge in reported cases and the excess illnesses in this outbreak begin in the back half of May. The rains began the week of May fourteenth. June, the month the state water engineers said would be the wettest, is the month the reporting exploded.

That is a temporal correlation and nothing more. Statewide rainfall is not Doctor Mora rainfall, and the station data that would settle it sits with CONAGUA. I have not found a single published report of a sewage system overflowing or a treatment plant bypassing in Doctor Mora or San José Iturbide this spring. I am not going to claim one happened. What I will say is that perhaps nobody has looked, and that the absence of a news story about a rural Mexican sewer is not evidence about a rural Mexican sewer.

Here is why the mechanism fits, though, and it fits better than anything else. This parasite has one known reservoir, and it is human feces. FDA’s own report says so in its second paragraph. Heavy rain is how human waste gets out of septic tanks and sewers and into arroyos and onto open ground — that is not a Mexican problem, it is a plumbing problem, and it happens in Iowa. An unlined elevated holding pond is a catchment. And then comes the detail that makes a pond different from every other point on this map: the oocysts shed in faces are not infectious when they leave the body. They need one to two weeks somewhere warm, between 72 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit, to sporulate. Northeastern Guanajuato sits inside that temperature window in every month of the year.

A holding pond is warm, still, open and full for weeks at a time. It is not merely a place where contamination could enter the irrigation system. It is a place with exactly the residence time and exactly the temperature this organism requires to become infectious. If you were designing an incubator for Cyclospora and then attaching it to a lettuce field, you would build something that looked a great deal like an unlined irrigation reservoir in central Mexico in June.

The plant is at kilometer 16 of the Doctor Mora to San Miguel de Allende highway. Seven hundred and seventy-six feet away sits Balneario Las Fajanas, a public thermal bathing complex the state of Guanajuato lists in its own tourism guide, with pools, water slides, grills, palapas and restrooms, open every day of the week. I have written about that before. Within nine miles there is a second bathing complex, a water park, two municipal treatment works and two towns. What I cannot show you is the thing this post is actually about, because the five ranches in FDA’s report are lettered A through E and their locations have never been published. The ponds are somewhere in that landscape and nobody outside the company and two governments knows where.

None of this is a novel theory. The Center for Produce Safety and USDA have been funding work on exactly this premise — faulty septic systems, compromised sewer pipes and treated effluent reaching surface water used to irrigate food crops. A two-year study in southeast Georgia confirmed the parasite by sequencing in nine percent of municipal wastewater sludge samples. In 2020 FDA came closer to proving it than it ever has, sampling a regional canal in Florida during the Fresh Express bagged salad outbreak and finding the parasite at two points, north and south of where the suspect farm drew canal water for irrigation. The genetic typing was not mature enough to match those finds to patients, and the investigation closed unresolved. And in 2015 FDA published an import alert on Puebla cilantro describing human feces and toilet paper in growing fields, and wash water vulnerable to sewage, at eight of eleven farms inspected.

There are four documents that would settle most of this and none of them requires anyone to speculate. The CONAGUA station records for Doctor Mora and San José Iturbide, which would say what rain actually fell where. The municipal discharge and bypass records held by the state water commission and the San José Iturbide utility, which would say whether anything overflowed. The locations, linings and sampling histories of the irrigation holding ponds serving the 2026 crop — Taylor Farms has these, and FDA has seen their 2013 ancestors. And the answer to the question FDA asked Taylor Farms thirteen years ago, in recommendation two of that same report: is Cyclospora a reasonably likely hazard in the Guanajuato growing region, and if it is, what happened to the wash step?

Twenty-two thousand people have been counted this season by their own state health departments. Two of them are dead. I am not in a position to tell you that a pond did this, and I have tried to be careful above about the difference between what a federal report from 2013 says and what I think it implies. But when the industry answers a question about irrigation water with the word well, somebody should point out that FDA already wrote down what happens to the water after it leaves the well. It goes into a pond. Sometimes the pond has no liner. And it sits there in the sun, in a valley where the temperature never leaves the range this parasite needs, until somebody opens a valve.

CDC named the source of the current Salmonella outbreak today — jalapeños from a grower in Sinaloa, Mexico, moved into the United States by Coast Citrus Distributors, 345 people sick (most in Minnesota and Colorado) in 27 states with 36 hospitalized. Chipotle and QDOBA pulled product.

It is not surprising. Fresh hot peppers and Salmonella have a documented relationship going back nearly twenty years, and every box of them runs through Mexico. Here is the record.

Start with the one everybody half-remembers. In the spring and summer of 2008, Salmonella Saintpaul sickened 1,442 people across 43 states, the District of Columbia and Canada, hospitalized at least 286, and may have contributed to two deaths. It was, at the time, the largest foodborne outbreak in the United States in more than a decade. Investigators spent months on raw tomatoes and destroyed the domestic tomato market doing it — growers put losses in the hundreds of millions. The New England Journal of Medicine account is the one to read: eating at a Mexican-style restaurant, eating pico de gallo, and having a raw jalapeño in the house all tracked with illness; jalapeños were implicated in every restaurant cluster with an identified ingredient; and the outbreak strain was recovered from a jalapeño at a produce importer in McAllen, Texas, from a jalapeño in a patient’s home in Montezuma County, Colorado, and from irrigation water and a serrano pepper on a farm in Mexico. Tomato traceback never converged on anything.

By July of that year FDA was advising consumers outright not to eat fresh jalapeños and serranos grown in Mexico, and Agricola Zaragoza of McAllen had recalled its jalapeños after one tested positive for the outbreak strain. Eighteen years later the shape of the thing is identical: a Mexican grower, a Texas or California importer, and a warning that arrives after the crop has been eaten.

The part of 2008 that deserves more attention than it gets came afterward, and it came from the Associated Press rather than from any agency. FDA’s food safety chief, Dr. David Acheson, told reporters that summer that the agency had not typically seen problems with peppers. The AP then went into FDA’s own border records and found that peppers and chilies had been the most frequently rejected Mexican crop for the preceding year — 158 intercepted shipments of fresh and dried chilies, eight percent of them carrying Salmonella, and in the first seven months of 2008 alone, 88 shipments turned away with ten percent contaminated. Fresh peppers specifically were being stopped as the outbreak ran: six separate shipments of fresh jalapeños and serranos were held in July after inspectors found Salmonella, and that August the agency added a dozen Mexican growers or distributors to its import alert list. The information was inside the building the entire time. Nobody had connected the rejection data to the illness data.

Eight years later it happened again on a smaller scale, and this time the sequence is almost unbelievable. In May through July 2016, 32 people in nine states were infected with a rare strain of Salmonella Anatum linked to imported hot peppers. In April 2016 — before a single case had been identified — FDA had already isolated that strain from an Anaheim pepper during routine produce sampling. The sample came from a consolidator and grower that supplied two of the restaurants outbreak patients later reported visiting. Whole genome sequencing showed the pepper isolate and 19 clinical isolates differed by zero to three SNPs. The agency had the organism in hand before the outbreak was recognized, and the match was only made in hindsight.

That 2016 investigation also documented the problem that is on display again right now. Investigators had to work from restaurant recipes because pepper varieties are nearly impossible for a sick person to identify once the pepper has been diced into salsa. Anaheim, jalapeño, poblano, serrano — a customer eating a burrito cannot tell you which one they ate, or whether they ate one at all. Add the fact that Mexican-style meals share a dozen common raw ingredients, and you get exactly what CDC published this week: a cluster analysis listing jalapeño peppers alongside red onion, cilantro and avocado.

Then there is FDA’s own prevalence data, which the agency generated and published, and which reads today like a warning nobody acted on. Under the FY2016–2017 hot pepper sampling assignment, FDA found Salmonella in 2.61 percent of hot peppers grown in Mexico — 29 positives out of 1,112 samples. Hot peppers from the Dominican Republic came back at 8.33 percent, seven positives out of 84. The Dominican result was strong enough that FDA ran intensified screening, got the same answer, and put two Dominican firms on Import Alert 99-23 for detention without physical examination. 

In the same date, one in every thirty-eight hot peppers FDA pulled from Mexican shipments carried Salmonella. That is not an anomaly, an outlier lot, or a bad season. That is the baseline condition of a commodity Americans eat raw.

Three. That is how many recognized multistate Salmonella outbreaks have been attributed to fresh hot peppers in the United States in twenty years: 2008, 2016, and this one. Three outbreaks, against a commodity that FDA’s own sampling says carries Salmonella at 2.61 percent, imported by the hundreds of millions of pounds a year, and eaten raw.

Those two facts cannot both be describing reality. Either peppers are contaminated at one in thirty-eight and almost never make anyone sick — which is not how Salmonella works — or we are catching a small fraction of the illnesses they cause. The 2016 investigation tells you which. That outbreak was solved because a laboratory happened to have sequenced a pepper two months earlier; without that isolate sitting in PulseNet, thirty-two people in nine states would have been an unsolved cluster and the peppers would have finished the season. The 2008 outbreak was solved after investigators spent a summer on the wrong commodity. The number of pepper outbreaks in the record is not a measure of how often peppers make people sick. It is a measure of how often we manage to prove it.

The reasons this commodity behaves the way it does are not mysterious. Fresh chilies are grown outdoors in warm climates, irrigated with surface water, harvested by hand, and eaten raw. There is no cooking step, no pasteurization, and no wash that reliably removes Salmonella from the crevice where the stem meets the fruit. Mexico supplies the overwhelming majority of the fresh jalapeños and serranos consumed in this country. The 2008 investigation found the outbreak strain in irrigation water on a Mexican farm. Sinaloa in 2026 is the same story with a different state and a different serotype.

The distribution layer makes it worse. Peppers move through consolidators — the 2016 investigation used exactly that word — who aggregate fruit from many small farms into a single lot. One contaminated field can seed a lot that reaches hundreds of restaurants in a dozen states, and traceback from the plate back through the consolidator to the field is slow enough that the crop is eaten before anyone finishes. Coast Citrus is playing that role in 2026. Agricola Zaragoza played it in 2008.

And the epidemiology is genuinely hard, which is worth saying honestly. Peppers hide in salsa. People do not remember eating them. Mexican-style restaurant meals bundle five or six raw produce items together, so the questionnaire cannot separate them. Investigators in 2008 chased tomatoes for months for reasons that made sense at the time and were wrong. Anyone tempted to be glib about this week’s pace should read the 2016 MMWR, which says out loud that the pepper hypothesis only came together because a laboratory match arrived to break the epidemiologic tie.

In today’s outbreak there is a recall of sorts, and it is worth being precise about what kind. FDA recommended that Coast Citrus Distributors pull the product; the company agreed to recall the remaining implicated product and is contacting affected customers. That is a recall of inventory, not of exposure — the peppers that sickened 345 people were eaten in June and early July and are long gone. It is also a recall conducted by private customer notification. There is no posted company announcement, no lot codes, no ship dates, and no consignee list. A restaurant that bought these peppers from a secondary distributor rather than from Coast Citrus directly has no way to find that out on its own. Here the advice to consumers is to ask the store where the peppers came from — which is to say, run the traceback yourself.

None of the difficulty above is new information, and that is the point. FDA has its own sampling data showing 2.61 percent Salmonella prevalence in Mexican hot peppers and 8.33 percent in Dominican ones. It has the 2008 outbreak, the largest of its era, with the strain pulled from irrigation water on the farm. It has the 2016 outbreak in which its own laboratory held the outbreak strain before the outbreak existed. It has border rejection records that the Associated Press could analyze, and the agency apparently could not.

In 2026 a grower in Sinaloa shipped jalapeños that put thirty-six people in the hospital across twenty-seven states, and the response was assembled in public, in pieces, over roughly seven weeks, with a distributor named on August 5 and the grower still unnamed tonight.

Twelve days after its last update, FDA posted a new advisory this evening that said nine-state outbreak now says fifteen. The total is 6,358 illnesses, up from 1,947. Hospitalizations are 278, up from 98. And after eleven days in which every federal page said zero, the deaths are on it: two, both in Michigan.

The number that matters most, though, is not any of those. It is the sentence explaining them.

FDA says that because of additional interview data, CDC expanded its confirmed cases to include people who reported exposure to Taco Bell or recalled Taylor Farms de Mexico iceberg lettuce. Until tonight the federal definition was Taco Bell exposure and nothing else. I wrote this morning that if New Hampshire joined this outbreak on the thirty-two illnesses it has tied to a hospital cafeteria in Keene, the case definition would have widened past a single restaurant chain for the first time since July 14, and that CDC could settle it in one sentence. That is the sentence. This is no longer a Taco Bell outbreak. It is a lettuce outbreak that ran through Taco Bell too.

You can see it in FDA’s own lists. Its restaurant line says the Taco Bell locations that received recalled lettuce include at least thirteen states — Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The outbreak has fifteen. The two that are in the outbreak and not on that list are New Hampshire and North Carolina, which are precisely the two states whose illnesses never ran through that chain. New Hampshire’s cases came out of a hospital cafeteria.

FDA also says, twice and without being asked, that many of these illnesses began before the July 17 recall. On the deaths it goes further: based on information Michigan provided, both people who died had illness onset dates prior to the recall. That is the federal government stating on its own advisory that the recall arrived after the deaths it might have prevented.

Here is the federal count for each of the fifteen states, alongside what that same state health department is telling its own residents this evening.

StateFederal outbreak countWhat the state reportsFederal share
Michigan3,49112,21829%
Ohio6454,01316%
Missouri5681,09552%
Indiana3701,34927%
Kentucky26562043%
Oklahoma18342643%
Kansas16546136%
Illinois16499516%
Pennsylvania13282more than the state reports
West Virginia12628045%
Nebraska9291more than the state reports
Iowa8322637%
Arkansas4120520%
New Hampshire316945%
North Carolina28670%
All fifteen6,35822,99728%

The first is North Carolina: two. The federal outbreak count for North Carolina is two people. North Carolina tells its own residents 867, and its dashboard still says the increase in the state does not appear to be associated with the Taco Bell outbreak. Both of those statements are now on government websites at the same time.

The second runs the other way, and it is the more useful one. In Nebraska and Pennsylvania, the federal number is now larger than the state number — 92 against 91, and 132 against 82. Neither state was undercounted by Atlanta. Both were undercounted by themselves. Nebraska’s figure is a spokesman’s number from July 20 that nobody has refreshed, and Pennsylvania publishes no dashboard at all and takes cyclosporiasis reports voluntarily. When the federal government can find more sick Pennsylvanians than Pennsylvania can, the 

The fifty-state floor stands at 25,213 tonight, across every state health department that publishes anything. The hospitalization picture is stranger than it was this morning. FDA now says 278. CDC’s national surveillance page says 517. The thirteen states that publish a number of their own come to 518 between them. Three federal-adjacent figures, three different answers, same week — and thirty-seven states publish no hospitalization figure at all.

One more thing changed quietly. FDA’s distribution list grew from twenty-seven foodservice states to twenty-eight, and the state it added is New York. New York has been reporting 753 cases while sitting outside every distribution list published so far. It is inside one now. The recall footprint is twenty-nine states counting the Walmart retail list, and the recall notice itself has not otherwise moved.

And one thing did not change at all. The outbreak still officially begins on June 22. FDA’s own July 16 advisory reported 1,644 illnesses with onset dates running back to May 13. The June 22 floor has now survived three updates and a full expansion of the case definition, and those six weeks of illness are still outside the outbreak. Nobody has explained where they went.

Where each of the 50 states stands this evening, with the source for every number. Ten rows changed: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Texas and West Virginia.

State2026 cases reportedRecalled lettuceWhere the number comes from
Alabama85 (Aug 3); 78 lab-confirmed; 2 hosp.; 22 tied to two Mexican-style restaurant chains, which ADPH says are not Taco Bell; 8 travelYesADPH via WAFF
Alaska5 (Jul 16)NoAlaska DOH advisory
Arizona19 (Jul 17)NoAZ DHS, via roundup
Arkansas205 (Aug 5); 108 in Benton County (Aug 3); ADH reports Mondays and FridaysYesArkansas DOH
California41 provisional (Jul 14)NoCDPH NR26-024
Colorado150 (Jul 17); 4 hosp.NoCDPHE, via roundup
Connecticut35YesCT DPH press release
DelawareNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Florida254 since May 1 (Jul 25); 264 calendar yearYesFDOH via News4Jax
Georgia11-30 since May 1 (Jul 17)YesGA DPH, via roundup
HawaiiNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
IdahoNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Illinois995 (Aug 4); 58 hosp.; 631 domestic, 193 travelYesIDPH via CBS Chicago
Indiana1,349 (Aug 3); Allen County 290, Marion 108YesIDOH via WRTV / WISH-TV
Iowa226 in 48 counties (Jul 30), calendar year; 47 travel-relatedYesIowa HHS weekly report
Kansas461 (Jul 29); 20 hosp.YesKDHE
Kentucky620 reported (Jul 29), 274 lab-confirmed; 24 hosp.YesKDPH via WSMV
Louisiana1-10 (Jul 17)YesLA DOH, via roundup
MaineNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Maryland69 (Jul 17)YesMD DOH, via roundup
Massachusetts145 (Aug 5); 9 in May, 32 in June, 104 in July; small clusters, some apparently linked to the recalled lettuceYesMass. DPH via CBS Boston
Michigan12,218 (Aug 5); up 710 in one day; 193 hosp. (Jul 30); 2 deathsYesMDHHS / Reuters
Minnesota41 since May 1 (Jul 17)NoMDH, via roundup
MississippiNo count publishedYesFDA distribution list
Missouri1,095 (Aug 2); doubled in one week; 90 in Boone CountyYesDHSS via KCTV5 / STLPR
MontanaNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Nebraska91 since May (Jul 20); Douglas County alone 45 (Jul 28)NoDHHS via Nebraska Examiner / WOWT
NevadaNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
New Hampshire69 (Aug 4); 32 tied to recalled lettuce at Cheshire Medical Center, 0 hosp.; 32 unknown source, 3 hosp.; 5 travelYesNH DHHS / NHPR
New Jersey46 (May 1-Jul 11)YesNJDOH news release
New MexicoNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
New York753 since May 1 (Jul 27 data); 787 calendar yearNoNYSDOH
North Carolina867 since May (Aug 4); up 149 in a week; 33 hosp.; 494 in Wake CountyYesNCDHHS dashboard
North DakotaNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Ohio4,013 in 80 counties (Jul 30); 96 hosp. (Jul 17); ODH puts Lucas Co. at 554, the county health dept. at 1,218 (Aug 3)YesODH via WOSU / Toledo Blade
Oklahoma426 (Aug 4); 418 confirmed, 8 probable; 25 hosp.YesOSDH via KOKH
Oregon23 in 2026 (Jul 24)NoOregon Health Authority
Pennsylvania82 (Jul 29); voluntary reporting, no state dashboard; PA DOH last published 28 (Jul 16)YesPA-HAN Advisory #833
Rhode Island4 since May 1 (Jul 17)NoRI DOH, via roundup
South CarolinaNo count publishedYesFDA distribution list
South DakotaNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Tennessee11-30 (Jul 17)YesTN DOH, via roundup
Texas198 (Aug 5); 37 hosp.YesDSHS via USA TODAY
Utah1-10 (Jul 17)NoUT DHHS, via roundup
VermontNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Virginia126 total (Jul 23); 66 domestic, 31 travel, 29 pendingYesVirginia DH
Washington38 (May 1-Jul 17)NoWashington DOH
West Virginia280 (Aug 4); 20 hosp.YesWV OEPS
Wisconsin160 (Jul 29); 3 hosp.; 50 domestically acquiredYesWisconsin DHS
WyomingNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Nine outbreak states20,4449 
Received the recalled lettuce24,04728 
Did not receive it1,16622 
All fifty states25,21350 

One more number, because 25,213 is a floor and not an estimate. In 2011 Elaine Scallan and seven colleagues at CDC published the agency’s foodborne burden model in Emerging Infectious Diseases, and its Table 2 still carries the only published United States burden estimate specific to Cyclospora. The underdiagnosis multiplier for this parasite is 83.1. For every laboratory-confirmed case, CDC’s own model assumes about eighty-three people actually got sick. Applied where it belongs, to the 10,468 laboratory-confirmed cases CDC reports this season, it puts the real number near 869,891. It does not go on 25,213. The state totals already include the cases the multiplier exists to estimate, so multiplying those counts the same people twice.

That is arithmetic rather than a measurement, and it should be read as a ceiling. The model’s own credible interval for Cyclospora runs from 137 to 37,673 domestically acquired foodborne illnesses a year, a 275-fold spread and the least precise line in the table. The 83.1 was built from data gathered before multiplex PCR panels carried a Cyclospora target at all, which happened in 2014, and an outbreak that has doctors ordering the test drives the true multiplier down further. Nobody has published an updated one; the 2025 revision of that paper covers seven pathogens and this parasite is not among them. What the figure is good for is the shape of the problem. The same table puts Listeria at 2.1, because severe illness gets diagnosed and a miserable, self-limiting one does not.

CDC posted an outbreak investigation page this evening. The numbers are 345 people sick in 27 states, 36 hospitalized — twelve percent of the 291 for whom that information exists — and no deaths. Illnesses began between June 19 and July 20. Of 191 people interviewed, 177 reported eating at a Mexican-style restaurant, Chipotle and QDOBA among them, with meal dates from June 14 to July 14. Investigators identified twenty-seven separate illness clusters at Chipotle and QDOBA locations across seven states.

And then the sentence everyone has been waiting three weeks for. Epidemiologic and traceback data show that jalapeño peppers from Sinaloa, Mexico, distributed by Coast Citrus Distributors, may be contaminated with Salmonella Javiana and are making people sick.

Now hold that up against what the FDA outbreak table says as I write this. Reference #1395, Salmonella Javiana, product linked to illnesses: Not Yet Identified. Total case count: 212. The recall column is empty. The on-site inspection column is empty. The page was last modified Tuesday morning at 9:30. CDC named a distributor and a growing region a day and a half later, and the federal table that most of the food industry actually watches has not moved a pixel.

That is a 133-case gap and a 25-state gap between two agencies working the same outbreak.

CDC published the state-by-state breakdown along with it.

StateIllStateIll
Alabama1North Carolina3
Arkansas1North Dakota1
California1Nebraska5
Colorado110Ohio2
Georgia6Oklahoma8
Illinois30South Carolina5
Indiana6Tennessee3
Kansas13Texas3
Kentucky1Utah1
Louisiana1Virginia2
Michigan4Washington1
Minnesota110Wisconsin9
Missouri7Wyoming6
Montana5  

Two numbers jump off that table, and they are the same number. Minnesota 110. Colorado 110. Those two states hold 220 of the 345 cases — sixty-four percent of a twenty-seven-state outbreak. Illinois is third with 30. Everything else is in single or low double digits, and eight states report exactly one case.

Now look at which states are high and which are low. California, with thirty-nine million people and Chipotle and Qdoba locations in nearly every city of size, reports one case. Texas reports three. Ohio reports two. Wyoming, with fewer than six hundred thousand residents, reports six. Montana reports five. Kansas reports thirteen — more than California, Texas, Ohio, Virginia and Washington combined. New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Arizona do not appear at all.

Nobody should read that as a map of where the peppers went, because it is not one. It is a map of which state public health laboratories sequence aggressively, interview quickly, and report what they find. Minnesota and Colorado sit at the top of this list for the same reason they were the first two states to say anything in public: they look. Somebody who ate the same pepper in a state that does not look is not in this table, and not being counted is not the same as not being sick.

Now the part that should bother you more than the arithmetic. CDC’s advice to businesses is to check their inventory for the recalled jalapeño peppers and not sell or serve them. I have looked for that recall. It is not in FDA’s recall column for this investigation. I cannot find a recall notice for Coast Citrus Distributors or for anybody else in this outbreak. Businesses are being told to pull a recalled product for which there is no published notice, no lot codes, no shipping dates, no brand names, and no distribution list. A restaurant manager who reads the CDC page tonight and goes to the walk-in has nothing to compare a case against.

And the grower still has no name. Read CDC’s own sentence carefully: FDA conducted a traceback and a common grower of jalapeños in Sinaloa that supplies Coast Citrus Distributors was identified as the likely source. Identified. Not named. Somebody has that name in a file right now. It has been in that file long enough for two national restaurant chains to have already pulled product on the strength of it.

I have written three posts in three days about this outbreak, and the through-line has never changed.

On August 3 the public count was 212 with no product named, and I laid out twenty-five years of Javiana history pointing straight at produce. On August 4 Chipotle pulled jalapeños after 110 fell ill in Minnesota and both federal agencies said nothing. That evening the scoreboard read Minnesota 110, Colorado 110, FDA 212, two states adding up to more than the national count. This afternoon Bloomberg reported that Qdoba had pulled jalapeños from more than eight hundred restaurants.

In seventy-two hours the public number went from 212 to 345 and the public state count went from two to twenty-seven. Almost none of that is new illness. The last onset date in CDC’s own table is July 20 — sixteen days ago. These people were already sick. What changed was disclosure, and it changed only after two restaurant companies and two Bloomberg reporters forced the issue.

A few things in the CDC data deserve more attention than they will get.

The commonly reported ingredients in those twenty-seven clusters were jalapeño peppers, red onion, cilantro, and avocado. Jalapeños are the lead, and the traceback supports it. But three other raw items are still sitting in that sentence, and anyone who lived through 2008 knows what it costs to lock onto one commodity too early — or, for that matter, onto the wrong one. Investigators chased tomatoes for months that summer while 1,442 people got sick and the domestic tomato market was destroyed, and the New England Journal of Medicine account later established that jalapeños were implicated in every restaurant cluster with an identified ingredient, with the outbreak strain recovered from a jalapeño in Texas and from irrigation water and a serrano pepper on a Mexican farm.

Two isolates carry resistance. One is predicted resistant to ampicillin, ceftiofur, ceftriaxone, streptomycin, sulfisoxazole and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and nonsusceptible to ciprofloxacin. Another is predicted resistant to azithromycin. Most people with Salmonella recover without antibiotics, but the ones who need them are the ones already in trouble, and in this outbreak thirty-six people were sick enough to be admitted. That detail belongs in front of treating physicians, not buried in a laboratory section.

The count is going up. CDC says so itself: it takes three to four weeks to determine whether a sick person belongs to an outbreak, and many people never get tested at all. The 345 is a floor.

Here is what should happen tomorrow morning.

Name the grower. FDA has the name. The agency’s own standard is that it will not name a specific product until there is sufficient evidence to implicate it — and CDC just published the implication. Whatever threshold FDA set for itself has been met by its sister agency in public.

Publish the recall. If jalapeños have been recalled, there must be a notice with firm names, lot codes, ship dates and consignees. If they have not been recalled, then CDC should not be telling businesses to check for recalled product, and FDA should explain why a product identified as the likely source of 345 illnesses is still legally in commerce.

Publish the distribution list. Chipotle and QDOBA are two customers of one distributor. Coast Citrus serves a great many more. Every one of them is entitled to know today, and so is every person who ate at one of them in June.

Update the table. Ref #1395 saying “Not Yet Identified” tonight is not a technicality. That table is what buyers, brokers, retailers and state agencies check. Leaving it stale while CDC names a distributor is how product keeps moving.

One last thing, because it is the only genuinely good news here. This outbreak’s first illness began June 19. A distributor and a growing region were named on August 5 — about seven weeks. In 2008 the same commodity, the same country, and a nearly identical epidemiologic picture took the better part of a summer and cost the tomato industry hundreds of millions of dollars for nothing. Faster is real progress and the people who did that work deserve to hear it said.

It is still not fast enough, and it is still not finished, because a grower in Sinaloa whose peppers put thirty-six people in the hospital has a name, and tonight the only people who know it are the ones who do not have to say it.

Qdoba Restaurant Corp. has pulled jalapeños from more than 800 locations and is cooperating with federal authorities investigating a Salmonella outbreak that has sickened hundreds of people across the country. The company has not said when the peppers come back or who provided them.

That is Bloomberg, this afternoon, by Daniela Sirtori and Jessica Nix. A tip of the pen to both of them, because they are the reason anyone outside the investigation knows there is a second chain.

Here is what the public record said before they filed. On Tuesday the Minnesota Department of Health named jalapeños as the suspected vehicle in a Salmonella Javiana outbreak and put its own count at 110. Carlota Medus, the senior epidemiologist supervisor in the state’s foodborne diseases unit (a.k.a “Team D”), said the food that made people sick was served at other restaurants as well. Laurie Schalow, Chipotle’s chief corporate affairs and food safety officer, said the peppers went to several food service retailers across multiple states. Colorado said it had 110 cases associated with the same outbreak and declined to say what they ate or where. FDA said it opened a traceback of multiple ingredients on July 22, carried the national count at 212, listed the source as not yet identified, and said it would say more if and when there was an actionable public health update.

Every one of those statements is true. Not one of them names anybody. “Other restaurants.” “Several food service retailers.” “Multiple states.” A person who ate a burrito in late June and then spent three days on a bathroom floor cannot do a single thing with that vocabulary. She cannot check whether she ate at one of the restaurants. She cannot tell her doctor what to test for. She cannot warn her sister.

Two reporters put one name on it, and the shape of the outbreak changed.

Consider the arithmetic. Chipotle pulled from the locations that received a common lot. Qdoba pulled from more than eight hundred. That is not solely a Minnesota problem, and it is not solely a Chipotle problem. It is a load of peppers that went into a national distribution system and came out the other side in thousands of kitchens, and the only reason we can see two of them is that a company confirmed it to a reporter who asked.

The question I want answered next is how Qdoba found out. If a distributor called Qdoba in July when the trace began, then the supply chain worked and the only failure is that the public was kept outside it. If Qdoba found out the way I did — by reading about Chipotle on Tuesday and going to look in its own coolers on Wednesday — then the notification system did not work at all, and every other buyer of that lot is currently in the same position Qdoba was in on Monday: serving the product and not knowing. Those are very different stories with very different consequences, and the answer exists today in somebody’s email.

We have run this exact play before. In 2008, Salmonella Saintpaul sickened 1,442 people in 43 states, the District of Columbia and Canada. Investigators chased raw tomatoes for months, wrecked the domestic tomato market, and only later established through the New England Journal of Medicine account that jalapeños were implicated in every restaurant cluster with an identified ingredient, with the outbreak strain recovered from a jalapeño in Texas and from irrigation water and a serrano pepper on a Mexican farm. The lesson everyone claimed to take from 2008 was that traceback has to move faster than the produce does. Eighteen years later, the federal traceback opened July 22 and the public got a name on August 5 from Bloomberg.

The recordkeeping rule that was supposed to fix precisely this — FSMA Section 204, the Food Traceability Rule, which would require lot-level records for leafy greens and fresh peppers among other high-risk foods — has been pushed to 2028. The industry asked for the delay. It got it. This is what the delay buys: a grower nobody can name, a distributor nobody can name, a retail list nobody will publish, and two chains that had to find the lot in their own coolers one at a time.

Somebody knows the grower’s name. Chipotle knew it well enough on Tuesday to stop buying. Qdoba knew it well enough by Wednesday to pull eight hundred restaurants. FDA has known it since the traceback opened two weeks ago. The only party still in the dark is the one that got sick.

FDA should publish the grower, the distributor, and the list of retailers that received the lot, today. Not because it makes an actionable consumer recommendation in the agency’s preferred sense of that phrase, but because eight hundred restaurants is an actionable consumer recommendation, and it took two reporters to produce it.

Daniela Sirtori and Jessica Nix did this week what the federal food safety apparatus is funded to do. They should not have had to.

At six o’clock last night the fifty state health departments were reporting 23,295 cases of cyclosporiasis. This morning they are reporting 25,213. Ten states moved. Seven of them sit inside the fifteen-state outbreak the Washington Postreported yesterday afternoon, and three of them — Alabama, Massachusetts and Texas — do not.

No federal page says fifteen states. CDC’s outbreak page and its investigation update both still read nine states and 1,947. FDA’s advisory is still titled as an investigation of a nine-state outbreak and is still stamped July 24 with 98 hospitalizations and zero deaths. Twelve days. NBC News confirmed the six-state expansion Wednesday morning off its own source, so two national newsrooms have now reported it independently. The government has not.

Here is where the fifteen states in the outbreak stand this morning, and what the federal government says about the same fifteen. The nine were named by CDC. The six come from the Post.

State2026 cases reported by the stateAdded to the federal outbreak
The nine already on CDC’s outbreak page  
Illinois995July 24
Indiana1,349July 18
Kansas461July 24
Kentucky620July 14
Michigan12,218July 14
Ohio4,013July 14
Oklahoma426July 24
Pennsylvania82July 24
West Virginia280July 14
Those nine20,444 
The six reported as being added  
Arkansas205Reported Aug 4
Iowa226Reported Aug 4
Missouri1,095Reported Aug 4
Nebraska91Reported Aug 4
New Hampshire69Reported Aug 4
North Carolina867Reported Aug 4
Those six2,553 
All fifteen22,997Federal count for these states: 1,947

Where each state stands this morning, with the source for every number. Ten rows changed: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Texas and West Virginia.

State2026 cases reportedRecalled lettuceWhere the number comes from
Alabama85 (Aug 3); 78 lab-confirmed; 2 hosp.; 22 tied to two Mexican-style restaurant chains, which ADPH says are not Taco Bell; 8 travelYesADPH via WAFF
Alaska5 (Jul 16)NoAlaska DOH advisory
Arizona19 (Jul 17)NoAZ DHS, via roundup
Arkansas205 (Aug 5); 108 in Benton County (Aug 3); ADH reports Mondays and FridaysYesArkansas DOH
California41 provisional (Jul 14)NoCDPH NR26-024
Colorado150 (Jul 17); 4 hosp.NoCDPHE, via roundup
Connecticut35YesCT DPH press release
DelawareNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Florida254 since May 1 (Jul 25); 264 calendar yearYesFDOH via News4Jax
Georgia11-30 since May 1 (Jul 17)YesGA DPH, via roundup
HawaiiNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
IdahoNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Illinois995 (Aug 4); 58 hosp.; 631 domestic, 193 travelYesIDPH via CBS Chicago
Indiana1,349 (Aug 3); Allen County 290, Marion 108YesIDOH via WRTV / WISH-TV
Iowa226 in 48 counties (Jul 30), calendar year; 47 travel-relatedYesIowa HHS weekly report
Kansas461 (Jul 29); 20 hosp.YesKDHE
Kentucky620 reported (Jul 29), 274 lab-confirmed; 24 hosp.YesKDPH via WSMV
Louisiana1-10 (Jul 17)YesLA DOH, via roundup
MaineNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Maryland69 (Jul 17)YesMD DOH, via roundup
Massachusetts145 (Aug 5); 9 in May, 32 in June, 104 in July; small clusters, some apparently linked to the recalled lettuceYesMass. DPH via CBS Boston
Michigan12,218 (Aug 5); up 710 in one day; 193 hosp. (Jul 30); 2 deathsYesMDHHS / Reuters
Minnesota41 since May 1 (Jul 17)NoMDH, via roundup
MississippiNo count publishedYesFDA distribution list
Missouri1,095 (Aug 2); doubled in one week; 90 in Boone CountyYesDHSS via KCTV5 / STLPR
MontanaNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Nebraska91 since May (Jul 20); Douglas County alone 45 (Jul 28)NoDHHS via Nebraska Examiner / WOWT
NevadaNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
New Hampshire69 (Aug 4); 32 tied to recalled lettuce at Cheshire Medical Center, 0 hosp.; 32 unknown source, 3 hosp.; 5 travelYesNH DHHS / NHPR
New Jersey46 (May 1-Jul 11)YesNJDOH news release
New MexicoNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
New York753 since May 1 (Jul 27 data); 787 calendar yearNoNYSDOH
North Carolina867 since May (Aug 4); up 149 in a week; 33 hosp.; 494 in Wake CountyYesNCDHHS dashboard
North DakotaNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Ohio4,013 in 80 counties (Jul 30); 96 hosp. (Jul 17); ODH puts Lucas Co. at 554, the county health dept. at 1,218 (Aug 3)YesODH via WOSU / Toledo Blade
Oklahoma426 (Aug 4); 418 confirmed, 8 probable; 25 hosp.YesOSDH via KOKH
Oregon23 in 2026 (Jul 24)NoOregon Health Authority
Pennsylvania82 (Jul 29); voluntary reporting, no state dashboard; PA DOH last published 28 (Jul 16)YesPA-HAN Advisory #833
Rhode Island4 since May 1 (Jul 17)NoRI DOH, via roundup
South CarolinaNo count publishedYesFDA distribution list
South DakotaNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Tennessee11-30 (Jul 17)YesTN DOH, via roundup
Texas198 (Aug 5); 37 hosp.YesDSHS via USA TODAY
Utah1-10 (Jul 17)NoUT DHHS, via roundup
VermontNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Virginia126 total (Jul 23); 66 domestic, 31 travel, 29 pendingYesVirginia DH
Washington38 (May 1-Jul 17)NoWashington DOH
West Virginia280 (Aug 4); 20 hosp.YesWV OEPS
Wisconsin160 (Jul 29); 3 hosp.; 50 domestically acquiredYesWisconsin DHS
WyomingNo count publishedNoCDC surveillance
Nine outbreak states20,4449 
Received the recalled lettuce24,04728 
Did not receive it1,16622 
All fifty states25,21350 

One more number, because 25,213 is a floor and not an estimate. In 2011 Elaine Scallan and seven colleagues at CDC published the agency’s foodborne burden model in Emerging Infectious Diseases, and its Table 2 still carries the only published United States burden estimate specific to Cyclospora. The underdiagnosis multiplier for this parasite is 83.1. For every laboratory-confirmed case, CDC’s own model assumes about eighty-three people actually got sick. Applied where it belongs, to the 10,468 laboratory-confirmed cases CDC reports this season, it puts the real number near 869,891. It does not go on 25,213. The state totals already include the cases the multiplier exists to estimate, so multiplying those counts the same people twice.

That is arithmetic rather than a measurement, and it should be read as a ceiling. The model’s own credible interval for Cyclospora runs from 137 to 37,673 domestically acquired foodborne illnesses a year, a 275-fold spread and the least precise line in the table. The 83.1 was built from data gathered before multiplex PCR panels carried a Cyclospora target at all, which happened in 2014, and an outbreak that has doctors ordering the test drives the true multiplier down further. Nobody has published an updated one; the 2025 revision of that paper covers seven pathogens and this parasite is not among them. What the figure is good for is the shape of the problem. The same table puts Listeria at 2.1, because severe illness gets diagnosed and a miserable, self-limiting one does not.

Ninety-eight people in seventeen states, twenty-six of them hospitalized, illness onsets running from November 21, 2025 to June 30, 2026 — that is the Midwest Poultry Services outbreak as CDC has it today, and FDA says the recalled eggs do not account for all of the illnesses. I wrote about it last week and made the point that the interval between a swab and a carton is where these outbreaks live. Then someone asked me how far back that goes. I went and looked. It goes back further than the rule does.

Start in February 2001, in four prisons run by the South Carolina Department of Corrections. Of 2,317 inmates, 688 reported to prison infirmaries with cramps, diarrhea and nausea. Stool specimens yielded SalmonellaEnteritidis phage types 2, 13a and 23. Two case-control studies pointed at a tuna salad served for lunch on March 2, made with eggs the inmate kitchen staff had hard-boiled — and boiling, as CDC noted in the same report, does not finish the job unless the yolk goes completely solid.

All four facilities bought eggs from one vendor. The eggs traced back to that vendor’s farm. And in February 2001 — the month before the March outbreaks — eggs submitted from that farm to the South Carolina Egg Quality Assurance Program had tested positive for Salmonella Enteritidis phage types 2, 13a, 22, 23 and 28. Phage type 2 was the strain that predominated in the sick inmates. The farm was a participant in the state’s own voluntary control program, the program found the organism, and the eggs went to the prisons anyway. In April the farm withdrew from the program. In April the prisons switched to pasteurized egg product. Six hundred eighty-eight people are what happened between February and April.

It did not stop at the fence line. That June, CDC’s outbreak detection algorithm flagged a rise in North Carolina, where the state lab counted 51 Salmonella Enteritidis cases in July and 31 in August against eleven in each of those months the year before. A case-control study tied the illness to eggs, and twenty-one of fifty-three patients carried the same PFGE pattern — the same pattern, and the same phage type 13a, found in the South Carolina prisoners. Two states, one probable farm. The traceback from retail was inconclusive. Nobody was ever named.

Understand what that decade looked like underneath the outbreaks. From 1990 through 2001, state and territorial health departments reported 677 Salmonella Enteritidis outbreaks: 23,366 illnesses, 1,988 hospitalizations, thirty-three deaths. Of the 309 outbreaks with a confirmed vehicle, 241 of them — seventy-eight percent — were shell eggs, accounting for 14,319 illnesses. Twenty-two of the thirty-three deaths happened in institutions, in nursing homes and prisons and assisted living, to people who do not get to choose what is on the tray. And those are only the counted ones. USDA and CDC modelers put shell-egg SalmonellaEnteritidis illness in the single year 2000 at 182,060, with an uncertainty range topping out near 276,500.

FDA’s Egg Safety Rule arrived in 2009. Here is the whole record since, every multistate Salmonella outbreak traced to American shell eggs, and I would ask you to read it for the dates as much as the numbers:

2010 — Wright County Egg and Hillandale Farms, Iowa. S. Enteritidis. CDC counted 3,578 illnesses between May 1 and November 30 against a baseline near 1,639, leaving roughly 1,939 attributable. Half a billion eggs recalled, still the largest shell egg recall in American history. Congressional investigators later put in the record that environmental sampling in and around the cages between 2008 and 2010 had produced 426 positive Salmonella results at Wright County, seventy-three of them potentially Enteritidis. All of it before anyone got sick.

2015 and 2016 — Good Earth Egg Company, Bonne Terre, Missouri. S. Oranienburg, the same strain both times. Fifty-two sick in six states, a cease-operations order, negative resamples, a reopening — and then eight more sick in three states with two hospitalized, the outbreak strain recovered from eggs at a Missouri restaurant and from the processing facility itself, after which Missouri closed the operation for good.

2018 — Rose Acre Farms, Hyde County, North Carolina. S. Braenderup. Forty-five sick in ten states, eleven hospitalized, 206,749,248 eggs recalled. FDA’s warning letter found the outbreak strain in the processing plant and in manure from laying house No. 9, and rodents throughout.

2018 — Gravel Ridge Farms, Cullman, Alabama. S. Enteritidis. Forty-four sick in eleven states, twelve hospitalized — a thirty-two percent hospitalization rate against a twenty percent norm.

2024 — Milo’s Poultry Farms, Bonduel, Wisconsin. S. Enteritidis. Ninety-three sick in twelve states, thirty-four hospitalized, onsets May 23 to September 13.

2025 — August Egg Company, Hilmar, California. S. Enteritidis. One hundred thirty-four sick in ten states, thirty-eight hospitalized, one death. Onsets February 24 to June 6. 1.7 million dozen recalled. When CDC put out its first alert the day after the recall, the count stood at seventy-nine in seven states. It nearly doubled after the eggs came off the shelf.

2025 — Country Eggs, LLC, Lucerne Valley, California. S. Enteritidis, nalidixic-acid resistant. One hundred five sick in fourteen states, nineteen hospitalized, onsets January 7 to August 14. Four restaurant sub-clusters. FDA inspected and three environmental samples came back positive.

2026 — Midwest Poultry Services. S. Enteritidis. Ninety-eight sick in seventeen states, twenty-six hospitalized, 1,589,577 dozen recalled on July 22 — nineteen million eggs — and the investigation still open.

Now notice the hole in the middle. Between Gravel Ridge in September 2018 and Milo’s in September 2024 there is not one CDC-posted multistate egg outbreak. Six years. I do not believe for a minute that American laying hens took six years off. Four of these landed in the last three years, and the last three each ran seven or eight months of onsets before a carton moved.

The named multistate outbreaks since the rule add up to something under 2,500 counted illnesses. The 1990s counted 14,319 from shell eggs alone, and the modelers said 182,060 in a single year. The disease did not shrink by that ratio. What shrank is how often we go looking, and how fast we act on what we find.

Because the finding has never been the problem. South Carolina’s farm was in the quality assurance program. Wright County had 426 positives in its own files. Rose Acre had the strain in laying house No. 9. Country Eggs had it in three environmental samples. Midwest Poultry says its own monitoring is what caught this one. In every case somebody had the answer written down. The farm knew in February. The prisons ate in March. Twenty-five years of this, and it is still that same interval, dressed up as bad luck.

Two days ago, I posted fifteen questions nobody had answered. Since then, a newspaper has put one of them to the company and been refused. Three have moved without anyone answering them. Eleven have not been touched. And eight new ones have popped into my sleepless brain. Here are all twenty-three, short.

The fifty state health departments now report 23,295 cases. The fifteen states the Washington Post reports are in the federal outbreak — Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and West Virginia — account for 21,393 of them. CDCs surveillance page carries 10,468 laboratory-confirmed cases plus more than 12,255 unconfirmed. FDAs advisory says 1,947 illnesses and 98 hospitalizations in nine states and has said so since July 24. Michigan reports two deaths. Twenty-six days remain in the Cyclospora season.

Asked, and refused

What shipped before June 29, and how many pounds were recalled? On Tuesday the Post put both halves of that question to Taylor Farms and the company declined to answer. It matters more than it did Sunday, because the company says the recalled lettuce shipped June 29 through July 16 while FDA says the illnesses began June 22. Cyclosporiasis takes about a week, and CDC puts the range at two to fourteen days. The first person in the federal governments own outbreak ate that lettuce nine to twenty-one days before the recall window opens.

Moved, but not answered

How many people have died, and how would anybody know? Michigan reported two and CDC acknowledged them. The number moved; the method did not. There is still no published death definition for this illness, no described matching against vital records, no follow-up on hospitalized patients. And the government now says three things at once: CDCs outbreak page says two, CDCs investigation page on the same website says none have been reported, and FDA says zero.

Where else did the recalled lettuce go? Consumer Reports went to the companies and confirmed three of the abbreviations on the recall notice: MKTSD is Walmarts Marketside, SY is Sysco, JB is Jack in the Box. Four others are still guesses, including mine. The House Oversight demand for the full list is due Monday. Three names out of eight, obtained by a magazine three weeks after a recall, is not disclosure.

Were the other twenty thousand ever screened against the case definition? Answered by events, not by anyone saying so. CDCs confirmed count jumped from 6,707 to 10,468 in one update and six states were added the same week. Somebody went back through cases previously outside the count. Nobody has said how, or how many were reviewed and set aside.

Eight questions that did not exist on Sunday

Why is a newspaper announcing federal outbreak expansions? Second time in twelve days. July 24had a CDC release behind it. Tuesday had four anonymous sources and no comment from CDC. As I write this, no federal page says fifteen.

What are the six new states being added on? Missouri says its investigators interviewed patients who reported eating at Taco Bell. Nebraskas Douglas County said the same in July, with nearly two thirds of interviewed cases naming the restaurant. New Hampshire has thirty-three cases and its only documented cluster is seventeen people at a hospital cafeteria in Keene. Arkansas, Iowa and North Carolina have published no basis at all.

Did the case definition change when they were added? CDCs own wording is 1,947 people infected and reporting exposure to Taco Bell. That is the entry ticket, and it is why a state with 11,508 cases contributes a fraction of them. If New Hampshire is coming in on those seventeen cafeteria cases, the definition has broadened for the first time. One sentence from Atlanta would settle it.

How did Nebraska get in? Nebraska is not on the companytwenty-seven-state distribution list. Neither is West Virginia, which has been in this outbreak from the start. The likeliest answer is not sinister: the recall notice records where Taylor Farms shipped directly, and the chains own distributors likely carried it the rest of the way. If so, that list is a shipping manifest and not a map of where this lettuce was eaten, and every consumer checking it has been reading the wrong document.

What is the hospitalization rate now that the case count has doubled? CDCs last figure is 423, attached to 6,707 confirmed cases. The confirmed count is 10,468 and Tuesdays update carried no new number. Thirteen states publish a figure of their own and those add to 433. Ohios ninety-six dates to July 17, when Ohio had 1,316 cases; Ohio now has 4,013. Nobody is updating the injury column while the case column triples.

Why did CDC take the state count off one page and leave it on another? On Tuesday evening the sentence on the surveillance page describing this outbreak stopped saying nine states. The investigation pagestill says nine. If the number came out because it is about to become fifteen, that should have come with a sentence saying so. Silent edits to a live outbreak page are how a public record becomes unreliable.

Did anyone in this government call the British? UKHSA reported sixty-seven cases in returning travelers against an annual average of ninety-three for whole years. Forty-eight of the fifty-one with travel information had been to Mexico, at different hotels in the same two regions — a supply chain, not a kitchen. Ontario has warned its residents about travel to Michigan. Neither CDC nor FDA has mentioned either country.

What happened to North Carolinas parsley? A week ago, the state said its increase did not appear associated with the Taco Bell outbreak and that patients were reporting parsley and cilantro more often than expected. Today it is in the lettuce outbreak. Both cannot be the whole story for 718 cases. FDAs own closed-investigation table carries reference 1325 from August 2025: parsley, sixty-nine cases, closed. Washington named parsley as a vehicle for this parasite twelve months ago.

Eleven that have not been touched

Why did the outbreaks start date move, and how many left the count? Onsets of May 13 to July 13 became June 22 to July 20 while the count rose by 303 and four states were added. A tightened case definition is a fair explanation and probably the right one. It is also unstated. Everyone who got sick before June 22 left this outbreak and nobody has said how many that was.

Do the two peaks in CDCs own epidemic curve carry the same genotype? A second hump normally suggests person-to-person spread, and this parasite cannot do that. A second wave therefore requires a second exposure event. CDC has run targeted amplicon deep sequencing on this organism since 2018 for exactly this purpose. Nothing has been published.

What is in the other five investigations? FDAoutbreak table carries six Cyclospora files. Five read Not Yet Identified: ninety-three cases, ten, eighteen, two and eight. That is 131 people where the government opened an investigation, ran a traceback and named nothing. Add the outbreak and every illness attached to a federal file this season comes to 2,078, against 23,295 the states report.

Did the 2013 sampling program ever run, and what did it find? The same plant reopened in 2013 on a stated condition: comprehensive sampling of product and water, plus continued monitoring of sanitary conditions. Thirteen years later the companys defense is that no product sample has ever tested positive. Whether it ran, and what it showed, has a paper answer somewhere.

Has anybody sampled the water? FDAs 2013 environmental assessment recommended this firm determine whether Cyclospora is a reasonably likely hazard in that growing region and, if so, re-evaluate the wash step. That is a standing obligation. What has changed since Sunday is that I can now say where the records are. Rainfall and river levels for 2026 sit in CONAGUA’s Sistema de Información Hidrológica. The long record sits in the national meteorological service’s climatological archive, more than 5,400 stations. Guanajuatos state water commission administers 419 climatological stations and 395 monitoring wells across sixteen aquifers. Drainage and wastewater-treatment records for the town beside that plant belong to the municipal utility of San José Iturbide. The question is no longer whether anyone sampled. It is why nobody has gone and looked, when every one of those filing cabinets has an address.

What is Mexico doing? In 2013 the investigation was run jointly with COFEPRIS, SENASICA and Guanajuato state health authorities. In 2026 there is no published Mexican case count, no Mexican agency statement, and no sign anyone on that side of the border is investigating. Every document in this outbreak is American. The contamination is not.

Were the harvest workers sick? The 2013 assessment tabulated prescriptions written for harvest crews and found the antibiotic combination used to treat cyclosporiasis being dispensed during the outbreak window. That proves nothing standing alone and I have said so. It is also the most direct question anyone could ask about a fecal-oral parasite, and in 2026 nobody has asked it.

What happens to patients who cannot take the only recommended drug? Two of the four clients whose cases we have filed are sulfa-reactive. Both were prescribed nitazoxanide; one could not obtain it, because it was on backorder, and her husband drove roughly seven hours to fill it. She was hospitalized. At 23,295 counted illnesses, several hundred Americans are in that position now, and no federal agency has said a word about second-line supply.

What does this illness actually leave behind? The produce industrys consumer FAQ says no significant long-term health consequences have been reported. I would like to know what study that rests on. Nobody is following this cohort, and the government values a case of this disease at four hundred sixty-five dollars — a number that survives only if nobody checks month three.

When did Taco Bell first hear from sick customers? Store signs went up in Michigan in early July saying the restaurants could not serve lettuce, cilantro, onions, pico de gallo or guacamole. On July 14 the company said no link had been confirmed to any ingredient or supplier. Both were true at once. Product does not come off a prep line for nothing, and the date the company first had enough to act exists in a ticketing system.

Why is any of this being answered in litigation instead of by a public agency? The 2024 romaine outbreak that killed one person and hospitalized thirty-six is known to involve this company only because we sued and posted the pages. This week the country learned its largest Cyclospora outbreak had grown by two thirds from a newspaper quoting people not permitted to say their names, and Food Safety News is publishing the fifteen-state count because the states publish it and the federal government does not.

Twenty-six days

Nine members of Congress have written about this outbreak. Not one has been publicly answered. The Oversight deadline falls Monday. CDCs confirmed count more than doubled this week and now sits 572 cases short of what the fifty states have been reporting all along, which means the states were right in July and confirmation had not caught up. The illness was always there.

The season closes August 31. In 2013 the same parasite from the same valley produced an investigation that ended without an answer and stayed that way. Twenty-six days from now the counts will flatten, the reporters will move on, and nineteen of these twenty-three questions will still be sitting there unless somebody makes them expensive to ignore. I have written down what I think ought to be done. Answering these comes first.

Good Morning. Overnight the pepper picture sharpened. FDA has now identified the strain behind both the Minnesota and the Colorado illnesses as Salmonella Javiana, which resolves the question I raised yesterdayabout whether Colorado’s 110 cases belonged to the same event. They do. Minnesota has named jalapeños as the suspected vehicle. Chipotle has pulled a common lot and posted a statement on its own websiteacknowledging a potential connection between the peppers it served and FDA’s ongoing investigation. Minnesota has said plainly that the contaminated product went to other restaurants too.

What still does not exist, thirteen days after FDA opened its traceback and with 212 people counted, is the name of a single supplier, a list of states, a case count that anyone can reconcile, a public epidemiologic curve, a CDC outbreak notice, or one word of advice to a consumer about what to avoid. I have spent thirty-three years watching this particular silence, and the only reliable way to shorten it is to ask specific questions in public and write down who refused to answer.  Here we go.

To FDA. Your outbreak table has carried this investigation as “product not yet identified” since July 23, and you told reporters you opened a traceback of multiple ingredients on July 22. Minnesota named jalapeños on August 4 and Chipotle identified a common lot. Are jalapeños the ingredient you are tracing, and if the answer is anything other than yes, what else is on the list? Who is the supplier, and on what date did you learn the lot code that Chipotle says its own system produced? Was this product grown domestically or imported, and if imported, is there an import alert, and have you sampled at the border? You have said you will provide additional information “if and when there is an actionable public health update” — with two states confirmed, a suspected vehicle named by a state health department, and a company pulling product nationally, what is the threshold you are waiting for? And when was the last time anyone from your agency inspected the operation that grew or packed these peppers, and what did that inspection find?

To CDC. You post outbreak notices for clusters a fraction of this size. Where is the notice for an outbreak that has now reached 212 confirmed illnesses across at least two states with a serotype laboratories identified? How many states hold isolates matching this outbreak strain — PulseNet knows the answer today, and the public does not. What are the earliest and latest illness onset dates, and will you publish the epidemic curve? How many people have been hospitalized, and has anyone died? And when did PulseNet first flag this cluster, given that FDA’s traceback did not begin until July 22 and Minnesota’s exposure window opened on June 14?

To Minnesota and Colorado. Minnesota, you have released a case count but not the number of hospitalizations, not the age range, and not whether anyone has died. Will you? Your investigators interviewed 84 people, and nine of them ate at Mexican-style restaurants other than Chipotle — which restaurants, have those companies been notified, and have they pulled anything? Colorado, your July 28 alert told the public you had logged more than 250 Salmonella cases since July 1 against a five-year July average of 125, and you have since told a national news outlet that 110 of them belong to this outbreak. Will you say that on the record, with an onset date range and a description of what your patients ate? 

To Chipotle. Your statements have been careful, and I want to be fair about that — you found a common lot through your own traceability system, you pulled it, and Minnesota says you cooperated fully and turned over records. Now the harder questions. How many of your restaurants received peppers from this lot, and in which states? Some outlets have reported you removed the peppers from “select restaurants” and others that you removed them across the country; those are very different statements and only you know which is accurate. Your first public statement went out on August 3, a day before the pull — when did FDA or a state health department first contact you about this outbreak? Who is the supplier? You know the name; you had to know it to identify the lot. Was the product domestic or imported, what audit and test records did that supplier provide you, and when were they last verified? Did you notify the other foodservice retailers who received product from the same lot, and if so, when and how? And after everything built into your food safety program in the years following the deferred prosecution agreement, what part of that system caught this, and what part of it did not?

To every other restaurant company. Minnesota has told you, publicly, that the contaminated ingredient was served somewhere other than Chipotle. Did you receive peppers from this supplier or this lot? That question has a yes-or-no answer and every one of you should give it today. If yes, when did you learn, what did you pull, and did you tell your customers? If your answer is that you cannot tell whether you received this product, then say that publicly too, because it is the most important fact any of you could disclose — it would mean that in 2026 a national restaurant chain cannot trace a raw, ready-to-eat ingredient back through its own supply chain in under two weeks.

To the produce industry. Which grower, which growing region, and what water did these peppers touch? Jalapeños are eaten raw. There is no kill step, no cook, no wash that reliably removes Salmonella from a pepper’s surface or from inside a stem scar — which means every control that matters happened in the field, in the water, and in the packing house. What preventive controls under the Produce Safety Rule applied here, who audited them, and when? And the question the industry has been dodging since 2008: after the Saintpaul outbreak sickened 1,442 people in 43 states, after federal investigators spent months chasing tomatoes because nobody could trace a pepper, the industry promised that lot-level traceability was coming. Fresh peppers sit on FDA’s Food Traceability List precisely because of what happened in 2008. Compliance with the traceability rule has been delayed again. Would those records, had they existed on July 22, have produced the grower’s name in a day instead of leaving 212 people reading press statements two weeks later?

And one point for the growers who did nothing wrong, because the industry has had this backwards for eighteen years. Disclosing the supplier is not an attack on the produce business. It is the only thing that protects it. For as long as this outbreak has a vehicle and no name, every jalapeño in the country is under suspicion — the ones from the operation at fault and the ones from the hundred operations that did everything right, the domestic crop and the imported crop alike. Silence is not neutral. It spreads the accusation evenly across an entire commodity and leaves honest growers carrying the cost of somebody else’s contamination. That is precisely what happened in 2008, when investigators chased tomatoes for two months while growers who had never shipped a contaminated fruit watched their season collapse, and the peppers actually responsible kept moving. The fastest way to clear ten thousand acres of clean peppers is to name the one field that was not. Every hour that name is withheld, the growers who did this right are paying for the one who did not.

One last question, and it belongs to all of them. Minnesota’s top epidemiologist said Tuesday that she expects the case count to rise, not because people are still getting sick, but because it takes weeks to detect the ones already infected. Every institution above knows that. Every one of them knows that the people counted today were exposed in June and early July, and that whoever gets counted next was exposed while this investigation was already underway and nobody had said a word. That is the cost of the silence, and it is measured in people.

If any of these get answered, I will post the answers. If they do not, that is worth posting too.

Minnesota went first, and Minnesota was specific. The Minnesota Department of Health is investigating an outbreak of Salmonella Javiana tied to jalapeños served at Mexican-style restaurants, and has identified 110 cases. Of the 84 sick people its epidemiologists have interviewed, 75 ate at a Chipotle between June 14 and July 14. The rest ate at other Mexican-style restaurants. Carlota Medus, the senior epidemiologist supervisor in the state’s foodborne diseases unit, said jalapeños are suspected as the vehicle, and that based on the evidence so far, the food that made people sick was served at other restaurants as well. Chipotle traced a common lot of peppers, pulled them from every restaurant that got them, and replaced them with product from different growers. Its chief corporate affairs and food safety officer said the peppers went to several food service retailers across multiple states.

Here is the part that is not yet nailed down.

NBC News reported Tuesday that Colorado health officials said testing had identified 110 cases associated with the same outbreak as Minnesota, that there are likely commonalities with the Minnesota cases, but that Colorado did not confirm whether its cases came from jalapeños or from Chipotle. 

What Colorado has published is a week older and points the same direction. On July 28, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment alerted the public to a significant increase in Salmonella cases: more than 250 reported since July 1, against a five-year average of 125 for the entire month of July. The state said its public health laboratory uses whole genome sequencing to compare genetic fingerprints and identify potentially connected cases, that it was coordinating with local agencies, CDC, FDA and partners in other states, and that federal investigators had not confirmed a specific food, restaurant, supplier or other source. Roughly 125 cases above normal, and 110 of them now said to belong to one outbreak. The arithmetic is consistent.

Now the things nobody has said out loud.

Nobody has said the Colorado cases are Javiana. Minnesota named its serotype. Colorado has not, in the July 28 release or in Tuesday’s statement. Until somebody does, “the same outbreak” is a characterization rather than a published fact.

Nobody has said whether the Colorado illnesses involve restaurants at all, much less Mexican-style ones, much less jalapeños. Colorado specifically declined to make that link.

Nobody has reconciled the numbers. Minnesota’s 110 and Colorado’s 110 come to 220. FDA’s outbreak table carries the investigation at 212, and the agency repeated that figure Tuesday while declining to identify a source. Two states now exceed the national count.

Nobody has named another state, though everyone has gestured at them. Minnesota says other states are contributing to the investigation and will not elaborate. Chipotle says the lot went to multiple states. FDA says it opened a traceback of multiple ingredients on July 22 and that it will provide additional information if and when there is an actionable public health update.

And nobody has named the grower. The peppers came from a lot, the lot came from a farm, and the farm has a name that Chipotle knew well enough on Tuesday to stop buying from it.

Consider what the phrase “associated with the same outbreak” actually requires. It is not a hunch. It means somebody put Colorado sequences next to Minnesota sequences and they matched. Colorado told the public on July 28 that it runs whole genome sequencing on every Salmonella isolate for exactly this purpose. Minnesota has been doing the same thing for thirty years. If a Colorado official can tell a reporter that 110 of that state’s cases belong to Minnesota’s outbreak, then the comparison has been made, the answer is known, and the only question left is who is willing to say it on the record and how long the public has to wait.

There is a reason to care beyond the counting. In the 2008 Salmonella Saintpaul outbreak — 1,442 sick in 43 states over a jalapeño investigation that spent months blaming tomatoes — the first pepper ever linked directly to an ill person came out of the home of a patient in Montezuma County, Colorado (she was my client), bought at a local Walmart. Colorado was where that investigation finally got physical evidence out of a sick person’s kitchen instead of out of a questionnaire. 

Two states, 220 people, one federal count of 212 that satisfies nobody, and a supplier whose name is sitting in a purchase order somewhere. I wrote yesterday that twenty-five years of Javiana history pointed at produce. It did. The history was never the hard part. Getting somebody to say the name out loud is the hard part, and it always has been.