Michigan crossed ten thousand this morning. MDHHS reported 10,077 cyclosporiasis cases since June 22, up from 9,680 on Tuesday. A state that identifies about fifty cases in an ordinary year has now identified two hundred years of them in five weeks, and 160 of those people were sick enough to be hospitalized.

The federal outbreak number did not move. CDC’s outbreak page still reads 1,947 people in nine states with at least 98 hospitalizations, and it has read that since July 24. Every one of the 1,947 qualified by reporting exposure to a Taco Bell.

CDC’s surveillance page is the other federal number, and it is a different animal: 6,707 laboratory-confirmed domestic cases since May 1, plus more than 11,500 more that are not laboratory confirmed or still need international travel ruled out. The agency says it is now publishing that page weekly, that it estimates a six-week lag between when somebody gets sick and when the case reaches Atlanta, and that the illnesses in the series began on May 1 with a median onset of July 2. The outbreak definition starts June 22.

Here is the arithmetic that made this morning worth redrawing the map for. Add up what all fifty states publish about themselves and the total is 18,209. Add CDC’s own two figures together and you get something north of eighteen thousand two hundred. The fifty-state hand count and the federal government’s own numbers have converged. They are not measuring the same thing and they never were, but they are now describing a population of the same size — while the number the government calls the outbreak sits at 1,947, which is under eleven percent of it.

Two things changed on the map since Tuesday. Michigan went from 9,680 to 10,077. And Florida is corrected from 106 to 158 — the 106 was a stale figure sitting in a wire roundup, while Florida’s own health department has reported 158 since May 1 across 36 counties, with Miami-Dade highest at 33. Florida averaged 246 cases a year from 2015 through 2025, so 158 by mid-July is not by itself alarming; it is simply not 106.

Which raises the thing I want to flag about this table rather than bury in it. Fourteen of the fifty numbers below trace to a single national roundup, and that roundup has not been updated since July 17. Its Michigan entry still says 4,312. Its Ohio entry still says 177. Those two states have since gone to 10,077 and past 2,500. There is no reason to think Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah and Wisconsin are frozen in real life; they are frozen in the only public record I can find. Every one of those numbers is twelve days old and every one of them is a floor.

The nine outbreak states now hold 15,452 of the 18,209. CDC’s outbreak count for those same nine states is 1,947. That leaves 13,505 people who are sick with this parasite, in the nine states the government has named, who are not in the number the government publishes — because they did not report eating at a Taco Bell. Eighty-seven percent of the illness inside the outbreak states sits outside the outbreak count.

The other sixteen green states — the ones that received recalled Taylor Farms lettuce but are not among the nine — report 1,720 between them. Seventeen of those 1,720 have a named source, and all seventeen of them are in one hospital cafeteria in Keene, New Hampshire.

Two questions crossed against each other for all fifty states: did the state receive iceberg lettuce that Taylor Farms de Mexico recalled on July 17, and does the state publish a 2026 Cyclospora count of its own.

Every case number on the map, the color it produced, and a link to where it came from.

A green state is not a state where the lettuce is proven to have sickened anybody, and a blue state is not a state where it is proven not to have. The map shows where product went and where illness was counted. What it keeps showing, four redraws in, is that the government’s outbreak number is not tracking the outbreak. It is tracking the questionnaire.