keys.jpgThe total sickened in the German E. coli O104:H4 outbreak as of a few moments ago stood at 26 dead with 674 with hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) and 1755 ill (total 2455). Illnesses have surfaced in another dozen countries in Europe and the United States in people who had recently visited Germany. It is likely that the number of ill will continue to rise, albeit slowly, as more who were ill since the outbreak began in early May, and as more secondary cases (usually about 11% of total) are counted.

This has been the most deadly E. coli outbreak on record and is now firmly in second place in number ill after the Japan bean sprout outbreak in the 1990’s that sickened over 10,000. Speaking of sprouts, apparently they as well as cucumbers, tomatoes and lettuce are still on the do not eat list.

What is perhaps most concerning is the number of HUS cases (about 28% of total – typical outbreak 10% with the highest I recall being 18% in the 2006 spinach outbreak) in this outbreak. HUS is a devastating disease with mild cases requiring hospitalization, blood transfusions and/or dialysis for the patient to survive. More severe cases can require months, if not years, of hospitalization and rehabilitation. Some will suffer strokes or more subtle brain injuries. There may well be multiple surgeries (removal of large intestine, gall bladder and placement of dialysis catheter). And, even after the acute HUS illness is over patients are at risk of future brain, bowel (even in non-HUS cases), and heart and kidney complications. Some survivors are left with diabetes and with slowly progressive kidney failure with the need for transplants – perhaps multiple ones.

All of this medical treatment is expensive – very expensive, and it does not even touch the cost of lost wages and productivity or the pain and suffering of losing a loved one or of living with a brain injury or risk of a kidney transplant.

Of course no one has spoken of the cost to the human victims. All of the gnashing of teeth has been over the loss to farmers (true, human too) around the world (especially Spain) as people shy away from potentially contaminated vegetables and as product is recalled and destroyed. Farmers should be compensated – especially those who have suffered because of being incorrectly targeted for the cause of the outbreak.

But, what about the cost to the families of the 26 who died and the 2429 sickened – especially the 674 with HUS? It is hard to estimate costs, but I have a pretty good idea of jury verdict and settlement values after nearly 20 years of involvement in every major E. coli outbreak in the United States (I have secured over $500,000,000 in verdicts and settlements on behalf of E. coli victims – E. coli O157:H7 and non-O157 cases – mostly children).

Past medical bills can run from a few hundred for non-HUS cases to several million for the most severe HUS cases. Future medical bills can vary widely depending on the severity of the future disease progression. Wage loss of course can vary widely depending on how long someone is unemployed or if they are ever able to work again. Pain and suffering is likely incalculable, but real.

So lets do some math (in U.S. dollars) for settlement or jury value.

Death cases – $1,000,000 to $7,000,000 – mode $1,500,000 times 26 = $39,000,000.

Non-HUS cases – $10,000 to $1,000,000 – mode $250,000 times 1755 = $438,750,000.

HUS cases – $1,000,000 to $30,000,000 – mode $3,500,000 times 674 = $2,360,000,000.

Total =$2,840,000,000. That is a lot of damage and human suffering.

  • As a now Chef and ex-Insurance Underwriter I appreciate you including the dollars and cents reality of this situation. Our goal as a company was always to make the affected parties “whole” and It always amazed me how my claims department was able to assign a precise dollar amount to a human life… Hence the career change. Hopefully, these families will find some justice however the facts of the matter are: Your food should NOT kill you AND money does not replace a lost loved one.