I have learned that the current Salmonella Tennessee case stool and urine positives (substantial numbers of ill people had urinary tract infections instead of stool cultures) have risen to 563 in 47 States. The first reported case is in August 2006 and remaining constant, but low, through September, spiking in October, November, December and then starting to trend down in January and February 2007. There does not appear to be a significant number of matched Salmonella Tennessee cases pre-August 2006 (ten in August and thirteen January to July 2006 and thirty cases in 2005) that are EPI-linked to Peanut Butter despite the recall date being extended to October 2004 (I am not aware of many matched Salmonella Tennessee cases in 2004, although there may well be a few).
We generally use the CDC estimates of unreported illnesses (caused by no or lost stool or urine cultures) at about 20 to 30 times the official CDC number (here 563 during the months of August 2006 and February 2007). We therefore think that the actual number of cases is likely to be between 11,260 and 16,890.