“It’s great to have local non-GMO food, but you’ve got to make sure it doesn’t have a fecal pathogen that can sicken 50 of your customers,” Marler said.
Page 16 of Chipolte’s recent 10K is a bit illuminating:
Risks Related to Operating in the Restaurant Industry
Instances of food-borne or localized illnesses could cause the temporary closure of some restaurants or result in negative publicity, thereby resulting in a decline in our sales, and could adversely affect the price and availability of the meat, produce or dairy we use to prepare our food.
Instances of food-borne illnesses, real or perceived, whether at our restaurants or those of our competitors, may subject us to liability to affected customers, and could result in negative publicity about us or the restaurant industry that adversely affects our sales. We may be at a higher risk for food-borne illness outbreaks than some competitors due to our use of fresh produce and meats rather than frozen, and our reliance on employees cooking with traditional methods rather than automation. The risk of illnesses associated with our food might also increase in connection with an expansion of our catering business or other situations in which our food is served in conditions we cannot control.
On a small number of occasions one or more Chipotle restaurants have been associated with customer illness, and on those occasions our sales have sometimes been adversely impacted, at times even in markets beyond those impacted by the illness. If our customers become ill from food-borne or localized illnesses or if an illness is attributed to our food, even incorrectly, we could also be forced to temporarily close some restaurants, further impacting sales. In addition, reports linking nationwide or regional outbreaks of food-borne illnesses have caused us to temporarily suspend serving some produce items in our foods or to otherwise alter our menu. Similarly, past outbreaks of E. coli relating to certain food items caused consumers to avoid certain products and restaurant chains, Asian and European countries have experienced outbreaks of avian flu, and incidents of “mad cow” disease have occurred in Canadian and U.S. cattle herds. These problems, other food-borne illnesses (such as hepatitis A or norovirus) and injuries caused by food tampering have had in the past, and could have in the future, an adverse effect on the price and availability of affected ingredients. A decrease in customer traffic as a result of these health concerns or negative publicity, or as a result of a change in our menu or dining experience or a temporary closure of any of our restaurants, would adversely impact our restaurant sales and profitability. Furthermore, if we react to these problems by changing our menu or other key aspects of the Chipotle experience, we may lose customers who do not accept those changes, and may not be able to attract enough new customers to generate sufficient revenue to make our restaurants profitable. Customers may also shift away from us if we choose to pass along to consumers any higher ingredient costs resulting from supply problems associated with outbreaks of food-borne illnesses, which would also have a negative impact on our sales and profitability.
I guess Chipotle has a crystal ball? But, it has had a bad week:
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) had a big downgrade Friday that marked the ninth day in a row of a lower stock price. We called that there could still be $200 in downside left, or about $160 from current prices. This is all based around an E. coli scare and resulting closures. Over the week, shares fell nearly 5%. Chipotle ended the week at $612.40. The consensus analyst price target is $747.22, and the 52-week range is $594.00 to $754.83.